The ADP National Employment Report covers “nonfarm private employment” and comes out a bit in advance of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The current report revises upward by 54,000 the estimate of job losses in March-to-April job loss, and estimates April-to-May job loss at 532,000. So it appears that, even before the massive job losses that should follow the bankruptcy of GM, the U.S. economy is still shedding more than half a million jobs a month. So much for “green shoots.”
Our July/August issue will include an “Economy in Numbers” by John Miller on unemployment, comparing the official unemployment rate (currently 8.5% as of March) with the BLS’s broader alternative U-6 measure, which also includes marginally employed and unwillingly part-time workers. John says: “[T]opping the 8.9% peak unemployment rate of the 1973-75 recession or even the 10.8% peak rate in the 1982 recession is now only a matter of time.” And that’s for the official rate; the U-6 rate is already at 15.6% for March.
Here’s the abstract of the ADP report:
The ADP National Employment Report
Nonfarm private employment decreased 532,000 from April to May 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report ©. The estimated change of employment from March to April was revised by 54,000, from a decline of 491,000 to a decline of 545,000.